Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Crisis Rush

If you’ve read the most recent issue of Time magazine, you may have noticed the cover article about right-wing militias.  It seems that there’s an upswing in the number of radical conservatives preparing themselves for a “Second Amendment solution” to what they see as a misguided and corrupt federal government.  One member of such a group cited his personal motto as “Life, liberty and the pursuit of anyone who threatens it.”  There are also doom-and-gloom voices coming from the left, such as this article.  While they tend to be more critical of violence, they are no less convinced that American society is on a very steep and slippery slope.  Here’s an excerpt from that article: “Resistance movements will have to look now at the long night of slavery, the decades of oppression in the Soviet Union and the curse of fascism for models.”  Though their views and methods are very different, there’s common anti-government sentiment and a common desperation in these voices.

Now it’s true that there are always radicals on every end of every possible political scale, but what’s notable is that so many of the same sentiments are being voiced by mainstream politicians and pundits, albeit in a less revolutionist tone.  Ever since it began, the Tea Party has decried the “socialist” policies of the Democrats, and this group has elected representatives in primaries and won sway over many older Republicans.  President Obama has warned his supporters time and again about the danger of a “corporate takeover of our democracy” in the wake of the Citizens United vs. FEC ruling.  This sense of urgency is definitely not restricted to the fringes, so there must be something behind it all, but what are we to make of it when it’s coming from all sides and confronts so many issues?

I posit that what we’re seeing is analogous to a gold rush, except that it’s a rush to harness that most potent source of political capital: a true crisis.  That a crisis exists can be readily verified with statistics of unemployment, foreclosure, state bankruptcies, federal debt . . . the list is quite long.  The system that’s failing is complex enough that fingers can be validly pointed in just about any direction, and so a free-for-all has ensued with everyone trying to convince the public that their opponents are the ones responsible, and they themselves are the only ones with the right direction to lead us out of this mess.  Whether their motives are pure or not, they want to harness the anger and indignation of Americans over their very real dilemmas for their agendas.

These observations lead me to two questions: What can we expect to come out of this? and How can we best respond?

As far as what we can expect, history would seem to suggest that anything is possible.  Consider (at the risk of running afoul of Godwin’s law) America and Germany in the 1930s.  That the crises of depression and war were effective political capital was evidenced by the rise of Hitler and the triple reelection of FDR.  The legacy of these men is very different though, especially on the point of human rights.  At first glance it would seem that the character and true motives of whomever wins the crisis rush is most responsible for its outcome.

There is some commonality between these two examples, though: they were able to exert extraordinary control over their governments.  Hitler made himself a dictator and legally disbanded the Weimar Republic.  Roosevelt had his famed first 100 days in office where he managed to set much of the New Deal in motion.  From Julius Caesar to Napoleon and on into modern times there is a recurring theme of leaders emerging out of crisis and effecting drastic change while commanding surprising amounts of loyalty and devotion from their followers.  Whether for good or ill, those able to harness a crisis are able to have a large impact.

This leads me to one possible answer to my second question: keep up the critical thinking.  As someone takes control and the problems start going away, it will be tempting to trust that person or group with ever more influence.  Even if we like them and their methods though, I think it’s important to hold them to account.  It’s also important to keep all of our values in mind, not just the subset that those at the top tend to focus on.  If we all keep asking tough questions and thinking for ourselves, maybe we could prevent the gains in power from solidifying or prevent a leader who turns bad from getting away with too much.

This promises to be a defining moment for our society, whether the consequences are predominantly positive or negative.  Let’s pay attention and make the most of it!